As the calendar flips to 2026, college basketball fans are treated to a feast of thrilling matchups that could shake up the rankings. Among the most enticing games on January 6th is the ACC showdown between #6 Duke and #11 Louisville. This clash promises to be a barnburner as both teams have their sights set on conference supremacy.

NCAA Men's Basketball Game Preview

Duke vs. Louisville: A Battle for ACC Bragging Rights

In the world of college basketball, few matchups carry the weight of a Duke vs. Louisville game. This year, the stakes are even higher with both teams ranked in the top 15. Duke comes in as the higher-ranked team, but our GameSim model gives Louisville a slight edge with a 54% win probability, predicting a nail-biting 79.6 to 76.5 victory.

Louisville will look to Ryan Conwell and Mikel Brown Jr. to lead the charge. Conwell is projected to contribute 15.4 points and 4.2 rebounds, while Brown Jr. adds an expected 13.4 points and 2.6 assists. Meanwhile, Duke leans heavily on the prowess of Cameron Boozer, who is anticipated to notch 20.9 points and 8.9 rebounds. The game could very well hinge on how effectively Louisville can contain Boozer and the supporting efforts of Isaiah Evans and Patrick Ngongba II.

Texas Tech vs. Houston: Lone Star State Duel

Switching gears to the Lone Star State, the clash between #25 Texas Tech and #20 Houston promises fireworks. Both teams are looking to bolster their records and climb the rankings. Our simulation gives Houston a slight 51% edge, with a predicted score of 76.4 to 75.2 in a game that looks set to be decided in the dying seconds.

Texas Tech will be relying on Christian Anderson's playmaking abilities, projecting him to score 18.4 points and dish out 7.3 assists. JT Toppin is another key player, expected to dominate on the boards with 10.3 rebounds to go along with 16.9 points. On the other side, Houston's Kingston Flemings and Emanuel Sharp will aim to tip the scales in their favor, projected to combine for over 27 points.

Michigan vs. Penn State: David vs. Goliath

Meanwhile, in Big Ten action, the #1 Michigan Wolverines head to Penn State in what appears to be a mismatch on paper. Michigan is heavily favored with a 77% win probability, as per our GameSim projections. The Wolverines are expected to run away with a 91.8 to 70.4 victory.

Michigan's Morez Johnson Jr. and Yaxel Lendeborg are anticipated to lead the charge with a combined 28.7 points and 14.3 rebounds. For Penn State, keeping the game competitive relies on the performances of Freddie Dilione V and Kayden Mingo, who collectively need to exceed their projected 24.8 points for a fighting chance.

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